Predicting Future Performance
May 28, 2019


CPAs typically report historical financial performance. But sometimes they’re hired to predict how a company will perform in the future.

Prospective Reporting Options

There are three types of reports to choose from when predicting future performance:

  1. Forecasts. These prospective statements present an entity’s expected financial position, results of operations and cash flows. They’re based on assumptions about expected conditions and courses of action.
  2. Projections. These statements are based on assumptions about conditions expected to exist and the course of action expected to be taken, given one or more hypothetical assumptions. Financial projections may test investment proposals or demonstrate a best-case scenario.
  3. Budgets. Operating budgets are prepared in-house for internal purposes. They allocate money — usually revenues and expenses — for particular purposes over specified periods.

Though these terms are sometimes used interchangeably, there are important distinctions under the attestation standards set forth by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA).

Factors to Consider

Historical financial statements are often used to generate forecasts, projections and budgets. But accurate predictions usually require more work than simply multiplying last year’s operating results by a projected growth rate — especially over the long term.

For example, a high-growth business may be growing 20% annually, but that rate is likely unsustainable over time. Plus, the business’s facilities and fixed assets may lack sufficient capacity to handle growth expectations. If so, management may need to add assets or fixed expenses to take the company to the next level.

Similarly, it may not make sense to assume that annual depreciation expense will reasonably approximate the need for future capital expenditures. Consider a tax-basis entity that aggressively took advantage of the expanded Section 179 and bonus depreciation deductions in 2018, which permitted immediate expensing in the year qualifying fixed assets were purchased. Because depreciation is so boosted by these tax incentives, this assumption may overstate depreciation and capital expenditures going forward.

Various external factors, such as changes in competition, product obsolescence and economic conditions, can affect future operations. So can events within a company. For example, new or divested product lines, recent asset purchases, in-process research and development, and outstanding litigation could all materially affect future financial results.

Objective Expertise

Some companies create prospective financial reports as part of their annual planning process. Others use these reports to apply for loans or to value the business for corporate litigation, buying out a retiring owner or a merger or acquisition. Whatever the reason for creating prospective financial statements, it’s important that the underlying assumptions be realistic and well thought out. Contact us for objective insights that are based on industry and market trends, rather than simplistic formulas and gut instinct.

© 2019

You might also like

HR Compliance Alert: Illinois Passes Pay Transparency Law

Illinois is the ninth state to pass a pay transparency law, which requires employers with 15 or more employees to disclose pay scales and benefits for both new jobs and promotional opportunities in their job postings. Even though the new pay transparency law does not...

read more
IRS Suspends Processing of ERTC Claims

IRS Suspends Processing of ERTC Claims

In the face of a flood of illegitimate claims for the Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC), the IRS has imposed an immediate moratorium through at least the end of 2023 on processing new claims for the credit. The reason the IRS cites for the move is the risk of...

read more